發表文章

Secret of Inflation (Hong Kong)

圖片
Money Money was described as medium of exchange goods and services, which always makes us neglect that money is a product created by human. Keynesian economist said inflation is about the demand and supply curved in aggregate of the economy, which like people spend more when the economy is booming, which all make more money chasing the same amount of goods and services. In the view of Monetarist, inflation is a concept of M(Money)V(Velocity) = P(Price Level)Q(Quantity of Economic Activities). If the price goes up, it could eithe r be caused by more amount of money in the system or higher velocity. To whom didn’t study economy as major in college, it could be hard to understand to concept. To make it easier for everyone, I would say money is a product. Put it in demand and supply curve, on the supply side when more amount of money is existing in the market, money would be less valuable, and because the money is now less valuable than it used to...

經濟分析 - 選股要點(管理者)

一個經濟體要發展,離唔開幾個因素。 1,教育 2,人口基數 3,國家政策 4,天然資源 以上呢幾點都要互相配合先可以建構一個良好的經濟體。當中政策為其中重中之重,國家如新加玻,人口及天然資源都不及鄰國馬來西亞,可是卻由短短數十年成為一個發達經濟體,這有賴新加坡的政策及對國民在教育上的投入。 新加坡的成功正正體現機構的管理者之重要,一個優秀的管理者可以化朽木為神奇,透過不斷的改變,發展優勢以補其不足。 在選股時,我都會搜查其管理團隊的資料,看看其團隊之管理作風,以判別是否可靠;經營方式是否過於保守或太冒險;管理是否有效率;有充足的行業及管理知識;有否遠見等等‥‥ 舉例如1137香港電視的管理者王維基,人稱電訊魔童,因其早年獨具慧眼引入新電訊技術,成功搶佔了IDD市場。投資者普遍相信他有足夠的能力去帶領公司轉型,所以1137縱使未能盈利亦不乏支持者。近期1137公佈將在2019年轉虧為盈,王維基再一次證明了他的能力。 香港大有能人在,在香港舉足輕重的商家們無一不精明如狐,但可信又會跟股東們分享利益的管理者並不多。李嘉誠又有幾多個?所以投資者務必小心分析,多加留神。

Stock Review (1339 - PICC GROUP)

In China, we can easily spot a lot of stock that were undervalued. Lets have a look on 1339 - PICC Group, which is a insurance company. P/E Ratio around 8.3 EPS 0.456 Price 3.77 Yield 1.25% It is obviously undervalued, especially compared to Manulife - 0945 P/E Ratio around 24 EPS 6.093 Price 146.9 Yield 3.47% The reason behind may attribute to political issue. 1339 is 70% owned by The Ministry of Finance of PRC, which means it is a government owned company. As we all know, Government company always represent low efficiency and corruption in China. Even the company look fantastic on data, doesn't mean the data is real. More, Government in China take action to against or investigate political opponents' company, it may pose threat to the stability of the company, and badly affect the operation. So people who would invest on Chinese market, always aim at private company that have nothing to do with political directly. The data of those non-government-owned comp...

投資要素(6)資產負債 及 財務比率

再進一步去看一家公司,我會從資產負債表及財務比率去看。 首先看負債比例,再看流動性及投資回報率。 從而透過對比其他同類公司得知公司的表現是否健康。 以下為截取於某股票資訊平台的資料︰ 如果根據以下資料要選一隻的話,我會選 中國海洋石油(0883),因邊際利潤率最高,負債比例合理,資產回報率較高,變現能力足夠,派息比率合理。 但它的股本/資產回報率不是最高,所以代表有些資源未及其他公司善用或投入生產。 意味著公司有能力透過增力生產去提高收益。 另外,留意一個概念,就是公司不是沒有負債最好。反而有一定負債,能為公司盈利提供槓桿,達到更高的回報。 如一家公司的邊際利潤率是20%,那代表公司投入1元就可以多0.2元回報。 在這個時候,如借貸的息率低於邊際利潤率,那公司就可以適當地借貸,提高收益。 不過要同時留意,高昂的利息支出。 順帶一提,現時國際油價重返USD70以上,這價格高於一般石油生產費用。也代表油公司可以重拾益利,一些在油價低時減少生產的油公司,現在可以提高石油的產出,增加收入,提高盈利。 這也是選0883的原因。 代號 ▼ 名稱 ▼ 變現能力 投資回報 盈利能力 投資收益 償債能力 流動比率 ▼ 速動比率 ▼ 資產回報率 ▼ 股本回報率 ▼ 毛利率 ▼ 邊際利潤率 ▼ 派息比率 ▼ 債務股本比率 ▼ 00883.HK 中國海洋石油 2.26 2.14 4.00% 6.49% 100.00% 13.24% 75.83% 34.80% 00386.HK 中國石油化工股份 0.91 0.59 3.21% 7.06% 100.00% 2.23% 118.20% 24.76% 02386.HK 中石化煉化工程 1.67 1.65 1.90% 4.42% 11.12% 3.12% 76.92% N/A 00135.HK 昆侖能源 0.83 0.79 3.39% 11.89% 100.00% 5.37% 35.61% 111.64% 00857.HK 中國石油股份 0.74 0.49 0.95% 1.91% 100.00% 1.13% 108.33% 38.98% 00338.HK 上海石油化工股份 1.82 1.21 15.57% 21.76% 8.61% 7.75% 52.72% 2.15%